Research for the Working
Astrologer: Astro Sleuthing Contests
by T. Patrick Davis
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Abstract
Astro Sleuthing Contests are aimed at reaching consensus on what works
and doesn't work in astrology, ranging from individual factors to entire
techniques. Each contest is based on a case similar to those commonly
encountered by working astrologers but with two important differences:
each case has a clear-cut outcome, and the data are of the highest
quality. The required chart judgments are therefore both realistic and
assessable. Astrologers are invited to send in their judgments together
with details of their methods. A pilot study using six contests during
1992-94 produced much interest and some encouraging results but had to be
discontinued due to lack of participants. The general indications were
alarming. They confirmed what has long been known, namely that
astrological methods are afflicted by total confusion, and that
astrologers are generally unwilling to reduce this confusion by putting
their methods to the test. Furthermore, astrologers whose methods clearly
failed continued to use them as though nothing had happened, while methods
showing superiority were ignored. This is no way to run a
"profession". The problem will need to be addressed by
astrologers as a whole when co-operation for the common good becomes a
priority. Until then the professional astrologer will remain a
contradiction in terms.
Introduction
There are two primary goals for doing astrological research, both of
which have their place in the total scheme of things. Goal One is
to find information that will help astrologers to understand and interpret
birth charts. Goal Two is to convince academia that astrology can
be a source of reliable knowledge; this in turn will open new doors for
astrology. Unfortunately those working to achieve Goal One tend to
be run off by those who can conceive of no goal other than Goal Two,
whereas a recognition by both sides of their dependency on one another,
with a need for cooperation, would be beneficial to both.
I was interested in Goal One, to find information directly
useful to working astrologers. Early on I came to the conclusion that
using large samples and counting particular factors tended to distort
rather than clarify the astrological picture. Gauquelin's Mars effect, for
example, despite years of study, provides no useful information whatsoever
to the working astrologer. Consequently I saw the need to be innovative,
so that the complexities of astrology could be handled. What follows is an
account of my approach and its results.
The need for consensus
Those of us involved for decades in research and tests of astrology,
needing to evaluate the overall picture, cannot escape observing the high
degree of confusion on basics within the community. Contradictory
information and the proliferation of methods have now reached the point
where they boggle the mind. Yet the situation continues to worsen.
Much of the problem arises because no record can be found of the
astrological community convening for the express purpose of finding
consensus on any matter, or of organizing any effort to separate the wheat
from the chaff. Other than in rare refereed journals like Correlation,
there is no peer review of new methods or theories by an impartial group
before publication. Until recently there has been a general lack of
recognition of the vital importance of complete and sourced data lo the
entire field. This lack of a professional approach has had enormous
ramifications, none desirable.
What is needed is consensus. We need first to sift and sort astrology's
body of knowledge and its many methods to find out what actually works. We
then need to banish the unproductive, misleading factors afflicting our
studies and retarding progress.
Astro Sleuthing Contests
In effect what is needed is a test of astrology that gives special
consideration to astrologers' complaints about earlier tests such as those
of Vernon Clark, which were seen as being too rigid and too removed from
the everyday practice of astrology. Such a test should be realistic,
unhurried, representative of what astrologers actually do, and of course
sympathetic to their cause.
Thus was born the idea of Astro Sleuthing Contests, which drew on my
decades of experience as an astrologer, teacher, author, researcher, and
concerned observer of the astrological scene intent on seeking progress.
Each contest was based on a case similar to those commonly encountered by
working astrologers but with two important differences: each case had a
clear-cut outcome and the data were of the highest quality. Thus the
required chart judgments would be both realistic and assessable. Each
contest invited astrologers to send in their judgments together with
details of their methods.
In this way the contests could look at everything from the basic
interpretation of individual factors to entire techniques. The idea was
that a careful analysis of the results would indicate which approaches
worked, and which were unproductive or misleading or were otherwise
retarding progress. We would at last be on the road towards consensus.
Obtaining participants
My approach depended on leaving responses from the largest possible
pool of astrologers. So I contacted the two largest US organizations at
that time but they showed no interest. Fortunately Aquarius Workshops Inc,
a non-profit astrological organization in Encino CA, agreed to run my
contests in their quarterly magazine Aspects.
The magazine was founded in 1975, is aimed at both beginners and experts,
is nicely produced, and has a circulation of over a thousand. Contributors
have included well-known astrologers such as Marion March, Joan McEvers (who is
the current editor), and Lois Rodden. All subscribers must sign a code of
ethics similar to that of the faculty. It seemed to me that publication of
the contests in Aspects would be a fair test of their viability.
Selecting cases
Using the pages of Aspects during 1992-94, I presented a series
of ordinary problems, common to human life and astrological practice, and
of a nature that astrologers claim can be read from a birth chart. Each
involved cases taken from my private files. Previously unpublished data of
the highest quality, complete and sourced, always timed to the minute,
often independently confirmed as accurate by the parents, was provided for
solving each problem through astrological methods. I identified the data
as being that of a male or female, and occasionally provided a minimal
clue to spur interest. No rectified or speculative data was employed.
The longitude and latitude were provided from a source known to be
accurate. Time standards were carefully checked. The editors were happy to
allow double-checking of the typesetting to avoid typographical errors.
Selection and checking of data was extremely time-consuming, but data are
of course the basis on which all astrological judgments are made, so they
must be treated as vitally important. This painstaking approach to data
assured participants that they would not be wasting their time on poor
data, and that poor data could not be used as an excuse for incorrect
judgments.
In selecting cases for study, preference was given to females because
they provide the majority of clients for astrologers, and also because
their data was less likely to be known to any other astrologer. Selecting
cases required much care in order to highlight certain areas of inquiry,
as well as to avoid embarrassing or identifying anyone. For example this
could mean selecting cases from those born in large cities rather than in
small towns. I knew something about each of the people selected in case
this might be useful in any subsequent discussion.
Rules and procedures
The nature of the contests and goal required that each problem be
non-subjective, because of a need for a clear and unambiguous answer.
There were no broadly encompassing questions such as "What
happened?" Some problems had more than one part. All problems were
designed to elicit clarification on interpretations, on methods, and
various practices. Entrants could use any astrological method or
procedure, but they had to show their work, provide evidence of the astro
reasoning followed, and list the methods used, thereby eliminating psychic
answers or guesswork.
Because of publishing schedules each contest had a deadline for the
receipt of responses, which were sent directly to me. I analyzed each
response for methods or interpretations leading either to correct or
incorrect answers. For example I always recorded the zodiac and house
system used, geocentric or heliocentric, the use of aspects and orbs,
various systems or techniques, and so on. The results were published in
the next issue of Aspects together with a new contest. The editor
considered the contests to be an important learning experience, in keeping
with Aquarius Workshops' aims of education and research, and gave me a
free hand. Winners were notified and complimented. Everyone was thanked
for their contribution.
Details of contests
Below are brief details of the seven contests presented in Aspects
during 1992-94, one of which did not require answers, so in effect there
were six contests. In the earlier contests the focus was on basics.
- Three young women born in successive years. Which one achieved a
Doctor of Medicine degree on the given date, and a quite dramatic
change in life style? The full text of this contests as it first
appeared in Aspects' given in the Appendix.
- Four persons (two male, two female), each with the date of death of
a parent, and the circumstances described either as
"expected" or "sudden and unexpected". Was the
parent the mother or father? Here the aim was to identify parents from
the birth chart.
- Two young girls born in adjacent states just 1d 3h 27m apart.
They had met and became friends. In a terrible auto accident one was
killed instantly; the other survived but was paralyzed in the lower
part of her body. The time (from one girl's crushed watch) and exact
location were given. Which girl survived? Here, as in most of the
contests, multiple principles of astrology were brought into focus.
- The contest by Charles Carter which appeared in Astrological
Quarterly, Volume 1(3), Summer 1927. What happened to a girl born
20 March 1916 at 5:40 am in London: (a) shortly after birth and (b) on
the 16 August 1926? My repeat was accompanied by the answers, so no
entries were required. Interestingly there was a typographical error
in the original contest, which Carter subsequently commented on
because it had ruined his contest and wasted the efforts of
respondents. It had the effect of warning the Aspects editor
and me to double check our data before publication, and happily we
found no mistakes.
- Three mature women. The first had never married although she had
dated men. The second married at age 14, and again less than eight
months after being widowed at age 28. The third had recently divorced
her ninth husband. Which was which?
- Four women. Although born at widely varying years and places, all
had chosen the same unique profession while in their teen years. What
was the profession?
- A boy aged 11 had a mysterious paralytic-type illness come and go,
leaving everyone confused as to the cause. Eventually the cause became
known and was quite specific. Can astrology indicate the cause? I had
hoped this would encourage horary answers, but none came in.
Results
I found that although astrologers were using the contests to test
themselves at home, only a few were confident enough to submit a response,
which rather defeated the purpose. Nevertheless the contests proved to be
far more effective than expected-m bringing forth useful information.
Contest (6) on vocation had the largest response and the most correct
answers. Contest (2) on identifying parents had the smallest response,
probably because the astrological literature gives contradictory rules for
judging this factor, for example the 10th house is variously seen as the
mother, or the father, or the dominant parent, thereby providing a
situation where nothing can be settled. I had hoped to find someone with
clear workable rules, but in vain. (My own opinion, based on experience,
is that the 10th house is the mother.)
In general, astrologers tended to enter only if great confidence was
felt, and not to re-enter if their first entry proved to be incorrect.
Given this tendency it is unsurprising that in six contests most
astrologers achieved only one correct entry, with only one astrologer
achieving two correct and one other astrologer three correct. No correct
answers were received from Great Britain, and I was not overwhelmed with
correct answers from the USA. Because of the high turnover I made no
attempt to record the total number of respondents, but at least one
correct answer was received in each contest.
Entries varied from simple tradition based on hand calculations to
elaborate multiple techniques requiring extensive computer calculations.
Unfortunately the number of responses was insufficient to give clear-cut
results. But for what it is worth, aspects between planets and lights were
the most consistently reliable significators, tropical won over sidereal
when signs were crucial, using planets beyond Saturn was better than not
using them, and midpoints (with tight orbs) and house position were both
used successfully. For timing, everyone used transits, with the progressed
Moon in second place. For further details see my summary in Aspects
Spring 1994, 19(1), 44-45, and in Astrological Journal, May-June
1994.36(3), 180-184.
(The last included a repeat of contest (1), which attracted five
responses, one to me and tour to the editor, none of them. correct, see Astrological
Journal, November-December 1994. 36(6), 345-347. This is more worrying
than it seems because the editor inadvertently published the charts with
the contest. One chart showed the contacts that gave the game away, yet
neither the editor nor the participants noticed! Afterwards there was no
evidence that consistently getting the wrong answer had led to any sense
of alarm demanding remedial action. Indeed, the editor suggested it shows
how astrology belongs to a different order of knowledge, "which means
it eludes being neatly captured by the concrete estimative faculty",
whatever that means.)
Some findings were provocative. For example many methods that I
expected to be used never appeared, and different methods could be
successful in the same contest. The last means that nobody can claim that
only one successful method exists. Similarly, because many methods failed,
nobody can claim that all methods are equally valid. Those using Hindu
methods mounted a spirited response, with conference calls around the USA
seeking consensus on an answer. Certain Hindu methods did lead to correct
answers, but when answers depended on the zodiac and its rulers, those
using the sidereal zodiac were led astray.
The best organized correct response came from a woman medical doctor
with her own clinic. She used the tropical zodiac and known planets with
Koch houses. For events she used day-for-a-year progressions on both
planets and angles, plus transits. She succinctly described her astro
reasoning. Only two respondents used a combination of geocentric and
heliocentric, but both provided correct answers.
Discussion and Conclusion
Although the responses were rather few, they nevertheless showed that
the contests had great potential for sorting the wheat from the chaff.
They also showed the overwhelming need for such a sorting. For example
they showed how using the sidereal zodiac, or the Uranian system, had led
even experienced astrologers away from the correct answers. The failure of
many methods was compatible with the results of research generally,
including the results of Vernon Clark experiments. A tolerance of failed
methods is of course incompatible with progress.
Each contest could have only one correct answer. Although each answer
had to be supported by proper astrological reasoning, there was still the
possibility that a correct answer could have arisen by the wrong reasoning
(thus an otherwise invalid significator might by a fluke just happen to
fit) or by a calculation error (this did occur). Nevertheless, given
enough contests and enough responses. such anomalies can in principle be
identified and overcome. Of course I could have run a few random controls
to cover this point, but I am opposed to such controls because there is no
way of guaranteeing that they do not apply to a person as gifted or as
directed as the test case. Controls need to be actual people, and they
need to be selected as carefully as the best cases, which would have made
my series prohibitively time-consuming.
In any case my series was merely a pilot study to see if the concept
was viable, so it was expedient to ignore such matters for the time being.
In each contest the aim was knowledge, not support for any particular
technique, therefore open minds were a requirement. Because methods
and reasoning had to be explained, many problems were avoided that can
upset tests not having these requirements. Therefore the potential for
contests to address any area of concern seems unlimited, subject only to
the availability of quality data and one's imagination or creativity.
One vital component is having an experienced impartial judge to
evaluate responses, especially when respondents don't know what they use,
as when it just came with their computer program. One of my biggest
challenges was to convince participants that the aim was to improve
astrology rather than to provide a diverting competition. Thus many
participants (mostly males) needed a follow-up call to discover their
methods and reasoning. It was clear that the idea of applying
discrimination to reach consensus was an unfamiliar one, as was the idea
that methods existed other than those they knew about.
Finally I was distressed to find that, when methods had clearly failed,
astrologers continued to use them as though nothing had happened, while
methods showing superiority were ignored. Indeed, only in contests like
these can one clearly appreciate the anarchy and total confusion that
afflicts astrology today. Truth is no longer a concern. Instead the Prima
Donna syndrome has been allowed to run wild, making the ego fatally
inseparable from the procedures. But this is no way to run a
"profession". The problem will need to be addressed by the
astrological community as a whole at such time as co-operation for the
common good becomes a priority. Until then the professional astrologer
will remain a contradiction in terms, astrology will justifiably be
dismissed by its critics as "for entertainment only", and Goals
One and Two will remain a pious hope.
In conclusion it seems clear that this approach holds great potential
for establishing astrology on a more solid foundation. Ironically the
approach itself is straightforward. The real challenge is to convince
astrological organizations that no discipline which so clearly fosters
confusion can ever become respectable. It is a challenge because the
problem has been evident for centuries, yet these organizations have done
nothing about it, at least not in a rational manner, and the problem is
be-yond the ability of individuals no matter how dedicated. Nevertheless I
still have hopes that astrologers will decide to treat astrology on a
responsible basis.
Despite having given over two years of my time to these contests, the
poor response persuaded me to close the series. For me. the contests were
a labor of love, and the satisfaction of intellectual curiosity was my
reward.
Acknowledgements
Thanks are due to Aquarius Workshops and Aspects magazine for
making the contests possible and of course to all the participants for
their support. My thanks also to Dr Geoffrey Dean for help in reworking my
various writings into the format required by Correlation.
Research for the Working Astrologer: Astro Sleuthing Contests is
reprinted with permission from Correlation Magazine 16(2) Northern
Winter 1997/98. Correlation:
Journal of Research into Astrology published by the British
Astrological Association prints articles reporting empirical research into
astrology, and those discussing methodological, conceptual and
philosophical issues related to astrology. Produced biannually, it is one
of the world's premier journals for investigating astrology in a
scientific manner. The web site lists many resources for astrology
researchers.
Appendix: the first Astro Sleuthing Contest
[Reprinted with permission from Aspects, 17(1), Spring 1992,
page 18. It begins with a brief biography by the editor.]
T. Patrick Davis has been teaching astrology for more than 30 years.
Terminating her astrological consulting practice and bookstore in August
1974, Pat spent the next 18 years on applied astrological research. Her
projects have included explorations of retrograde and stationary planets
sexual assaults, missing children, inventors, victims, criminals,
financial markets, politics, degree areas, and astrological techniques.
She is best known for her pioneering work on Heliocentric Astrology and
her extensively published research findings. In 1991, she received the AW
[Aquarius Workshops] Robert Carl Jansky Award for research and leadership.
Introduction: The need is great for astrologers to sift through
our body of knowledge and its many techniques to find what works best and
most consistently. It is hoped that this approach will nudge the
astrological community to co-operate in a candid assessment of what we do
and do not know and what we can and cannot do with our beloved
science/art. It is true that there are subjective situations which do not
easily lend themselves to this type of testing~ but much remains that is
suitable. Those strongly advocating particular methods should find
participating in this forum a splendid opportunity to demonstrate the
worth of these methods. The wide-ranging advantages of knowing which
techniques perform best should be obvious. If there is an enthusiastic
response to this forum, it will be continued and many other challenges can
be presented.
The Case of the New MD
- Girl one: Born 18 September 1953 at 9:49 am CST in Kansas City,
Kansas (39N07, 94W37:30). Data from birth certificate.
- Girl two: Born 16 September 1954 at 9:50 am CST in Kansas City,
Kansas (39N07, 94W37:30). Data from birth certificate.
- Girl three: Born 26 October 1955 at 7:56 am CST in Kansas City,
Missouri (39N06, 94W34:42). Data from birth certificate.
(General accuracy of all data was confirmed by the mothers.)
Event: One of the young ladies, represented by the data above,
graduated with high honors as a Doctor of Medicine on the afternoon of 11
May 1991 in the Midwest. At a special dinner the night before, she was
singled out and praised for her achievements. Before beginning private
practice, she must fulfill a two-year residency, but there is a salary.
Her residency work began within a couple of months of graduation.
Additional information: These three lovely young ladies have
certain similarities between their charts and remarkably similar
backgrounds and environmental conditioning. Indeed, two are cousins. Each
one had disillusioning experiences in the first marriage, but has coped
well. They are constructive, productive citizens, all holding responsible
career positions.
Clues: The father of the new MD played a key role in assuring
her advancement in status by supplying whatever funds were essential to
continue her extended schooling over and above the grants received from
alternative sources. The other two girls, for various reasons, received
the standard assistance supplied in middle-class families up to the time
of marriage. Thereafter, they were on their own.
Questions: Which young lady achieved this enormous jump in
status and income potential? How did you arrive at your conclusion? What
methods did you use?
Answers: The correct answer will be in the next issue of Aspects
along with an assessment of the methods used that were most successful.
Contest: Are you a good astro-sleuth? If so, you'll probably
come up with the correct answer to this issue's question. All entrants
with the correct answer will receive a certificate of recognition: the
entrant whose correct submission has the earliest postmark will also
receive a $10 gift certificate to apply toward either his or her AW
renewal fee or a purchase from the AW product list. To be valid, each
submission must include information on what methods were used to
reach its conclusion (in other words, show your work). All submissions
are to be sent directly to: T. Patrick Davis, 6096 Masters Blvd.
Orlando FL 32819.
The Answer: This contest is now closed. Click here to see
the answer.
Editor's Note: There are many ways to skin a cat and no doubt
many methods for making correct astrological predictions. We're interested
in discovering what works for you. Let us know if you use sidereal,
tropical, geo. helio, Hindu, Mayan, horary, usual planets, Chiron,
Transpluto, Uranian. asteroids, comets, fixed stars, degree area,
secondary progressions, solar arc directions. tertiary/solar/lunar
returns, eclipses, cosmobiology, midpoints, declinations, transits,
interface points, nodes, aphelion, perihelion, galactic points, eastpoints,
vertex. Arabic Parts, house systems or whatever you use to get the
correct answer.
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